$60,000 may soon go the way of $20,000, filbfilb believes, but a potential sell-off around the Coinbase IPO means April could yet spark problems for bulls.
Bitcoin (BTC) is primed for a price breakout after beating out volatility, but April may still produce a surprise sell-off.
In his latest market update on April 2, filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, said that he now expects upside to take over on BTC/USD.
BTC “threatening a breakout”
Bitcoin has recovered from its flash crash earlier in the week and briefly hit $60,000 overnight on Friday.
With seven-day gains still at 13%, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish in the short term now that consolidation looks set to conclude, filbfilb argues.
“With the weekend looming amidst a buoyant week; it’s difficult not to be optimistic,” he summarized.
“I’m not thinking we will break out with as much ferocity, but I do think that we are on the brink of a strong breakout.”
A comparison worth noting is what happened to Bitcoin when it originally broke through $20,000 resistance. A pattern of sudden breakouts following a protracted period of consolidation and regression could end up characterizing $60,000 as well.
“A few weeks ago I shared this similar price action/market structure as what was seen around the $20k level, which had a correction back to c.50k before a violent breakout,” filbfilb continued.
“Since then price has almost perfectly played ball with this idea and is now threatening a breakout.”
Bulls to reckon with Coinbase IPO, options expiry
This breakout nonetheless faces challenges in the coming weeks. Coinbase, fully prepared for its initial public offering (IPO) on April 14, may unwittingly spark downward price pressure.
As was the case this week with London-based Deliveroo, the debut of an IPO often results in selling at first, with the implications for Bitcoin being clear.
“We may see increased volatility around this time period of the 14th April and should pay particular attention to the time from here to options expiry at the end of the month,” filbfilb concluded.
The end-of-month options expiry may also spook spot price temporarily, this having been very much in evidence at the end of March, when expiring options hit a record $6 billion. In the end, however, the actual event itself had no impact on BTC performance.
“Lots more bull market to come,” statistician Willy Woo forecast.
Woo quoted on-chain analytics service Glassnode's active BTC supply data, which likewise suggests that Bitcoin can rise more before old hodlers sell for profit, causing a cycle top.
Regardless of Coinbase IPO's impact on the market this month, the analyst doesn't see Bitcoin closing below $46,400 anytime soon. He said:
“$46.4k is the price I'm modeling that we won't visit again during in this bull market (daily close).”